2008年11月20日にアメリカの国家情報会議（ＮＩＣ）が公表した報告書「世界潮流２０２５」は、今後アメリカの覇権が低下して多極化に移行すると分析、日本の外交政策として、〈１〉中国の経済成長が続けば良好な対中関係を維持するが、軍事力への警戒感から安全保障面ではアメリカに接近し、中国を孤立化させようとする、〈２〉中国が域内各国に敵対的になれば、アメリカとともに対抗する、〈３〉アメリカの安保面でのアジア関与が低下していけば、中国に接近する、〈４〉アメリカと中国が政治・安保で接近すれば、日本もこれに追随する――とする4つのシナリオを提示した。
原文の関係箇所は以下の通り。
①In the first scenario, a China that continues its current economic growth pattern will be increasingly important to Japan’s economic growth, and Tokyo will work to maintain good political relations and increase market access for Japanese goods. Tokyo may seek a free trade agreement with Beijing well before 2025. At the same time, China’s military power and influence in the region will be of increasing concern to Japanese policymakers. Their likely response will be to draw closer to the United States, increase their missile defense and antisubmarine warfare capabilities, seek to develop regional allies such as South Korea, and push for greater development of international multilateral organizations in East Asia, including an East Asian Summit.
②In a second scenario, China’s economic growth falters or its policies become openly hostile toward countries in the region. In response, Tokyo would likely move to assert its influence, in part by seeking to rally democratic states in East Asia, and in part by continuing to develop its own national power through advanced military hardware. Tokyo would assume strong support from Washington in this circumstance and would move to shape political and economic forums in the region to isolate or limit Chinese influence. This would cause states in the region to make a difficult choice between their continued unease with Japanese military strength and a China that has the potential to dominate nearly all nations near its borders. As a result, Japan might find itself dealing with an ad-hoc nonaligned movement of East Asian states seeking to avoid being entrapped by either Tokyo or Beijing.
③In a third scenario, should the United States’ security commitment to Japan weaken or be perceived by Tokyo as weakening, Japan may decide to move closer to Beijing on regional issues and ultimately consider security arrangements that give China a de facto role in maintaining stability in ocean areas near Japan. Tokyo is highly unlikely to respond to a loss of the US security umbrella by developing a nuclear weapons program, short of clearly aggressive intent by China toward Japan.
④A fourth scenario would see the United States and China move significantly toward political and security cooperation in the region, leading to US accommodation of a Chinese military presence in the region and a corresponding realignment or drawdown of US forces there. In this case, Tokyo almost certainly would follow the prevailing trend and move closer to Beijing to be included in regional security and political arrangements. Similarly, others in the region, including South Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN members likely would follow such a US lead, putting further pressure on Tokyo to align its policies with those of the other actors in the region.
